All eyes are on Budget 2026, with hopes of high growth despite global limitations.
The First Advance Estimates (FAE) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025‑26 was released on 7 January 2026. The FAE provides an advance assessment of the economic performance of the current fiscal year (FY 2025‑26). Based on data available up to November 2025, these estimates are critical as they form the baseline for the Union Budget.
Let’s delve into the data directly.
FAE of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025‑26
According to the press release, India’s real GDP, at constant 2011‑12 prices, is estimated at ₹201.9 trillion, showing a growth of 7.4 percent compared to 6.5 percent in 2024‑25. At current prices, the nominal GDP is estimated at ₹327 trillion with a nominal growth of 8 percent.
Despite geopolitical tensions, coupled with volatility in financial and commodity markets, India shows a remarkable 7.4 percent real GDP growth.
This robust growth rate positions India among the fastest-growing major economies in the world. However, the sectoral composition will reveal both strengths and vulnerabilities that policymakers must navigate with care.
Sectoral Growth Rate Analysis
Agriculture and allied activities are expected to grow at 3.1 percent — slower than 4.6 percent last year. A weaker agricultural produce will not only have an impact on food inflation but also on rural consumption, which remains a critical component of overall demand.
Manufacturing is expected to grow at 7.0 percent compared to 4.5 percent last year. This means that investment momentum and productivity are picking up. This is thanks to government initiatives such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and the broader “Make in India”, which gave a push to the sector. Overall, the industry is estimated to grow by 6.6 percent.
Construction, which witnessed a robust growth of 9.4 percent in 2024-25, is now expected to moderate at 7 percent in FY2025-26. This reflects possible constraints in finance, project execution and high base effect.
Electricity, gas and water supply showed a sharp decline to 2.1 percent, pointing to structural bottlenecks in infrastructure and energy distribution that require policy attention.
The Service sector is the major driver of India’s growth. Trade, hotels, transport, and communication are expected to grow at 7.5 percent, while financial, real estate, and professional services are estimated to attain a substantial growth rate of 9.9 percent, making them the strongest performing subsector.
Public administration and defence are estimated to grow at 9.9 percent, indicating continued government expenditure. These growth rates shows the role of the service sector in India’s growth story and also the strength of urban demand.
Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure that excludes net taxes, revealing a clear picture of sectoral contributions to the economy’s overall output. According to the Advance Estimates, GVA is projected to grow at 7.3 percent in FY 2025–26.
The divergence between the slowdown in agricultural growth and manufacturing’s robust expansion underscores the uneven nature of economic growth. It reminds policymakers that resilience must be achieved across all sectors, not concentrated in only a few.
Policy Implications
The FAE has significant policy implications for Budget 2026, as it will shape fiscal deficit targets and revenue assumptions.
The data points out two main areas for policy focus: the robust growth of the manufacturing sector presents an opportunity for new investment incentives, while the slowdown in agricultural growth underscores the need for targeted support schemes in rural areas.
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast of 7.3 percent growth is supported by the FAE, but inflation risks from the unpredictable monsoon season and global oil prices persist. Monetary policy will need to balance between controlling inflation and promoting sustainable growth.
The FAE emphasises the importance of structural reforms in various sectors of the economy. It suggests that investment in irrigation, technology, and diversification in agriculture is necessary to reduce dependence on rainfall. There is a need for infrastructure upgrades and energy reforms in utilities.
Continued investment in competitiveness, innovation, and supply chain resilience is essential to maintain the rebound in manufacturing. The Services sector, though robust, must be used to create more jobs and guarantee that everyone benefits from the economic growth (inclusivity).
Conclusion
The broader narrative that emerges from the FAE is one of cautious resilience. Though India has witnessed robust growth, it is not immune to shocks. To convert this robust growth into long-term gains, the economy needs prudent fiscal management, structural reforms and climate-resilient strategies.
In particular, fiscal resilience may pave the way for long-term economic growth, guaranteeing sustainable growth amid global uncertainty and domestic vulnerabilities.
The MoSPI’s FAE emphasises the significance of striking a balance between growth and sustainability and serves as the basis for Budget 2026.
Not only should we celebrate the numbers, but we also need to turn them into policies that ensure long-term stability, increase inclusivity, and boost resilience. India has a promising economic story, but how well policymakers handle the risks associated with the growth path will determine how long it lasts.
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